The trend of the second half of the machinery industry
In the first 5 months of this year, the situation in the machinery industry is more severe than it was at the beginning of the year. In recent years, the economic operation analysis meeting of the Chi...
In the first 5 months of this year, the situation in the machinery industry is more severe than it was at the beginning of the year. In recent years, the economic operation analysis meeting of the China Machinery Industry Federation of experts pointed out that, 1~5 month, the main economic indicators of the machinery industry descended month by month, concentrated expression: in the past so many years, the machinery industry increased the ratio of product varieties to 70%, and the decrease was 30%. In the first half of May this year, the proportion of the number of varieties increased year after year was only 40%, accounting for 60%, which is very rare after entering the new century.
The growth rate of 5.5% is less than half
Statistics show that since the beginning of this year, the growth rate of the machinery industry has slowed down and the indicators have been growing at a low level. In 1~5 months, the industrial added value of the enterprises above the scale of the machinery industry increased by 5.5%, 0.3 percentage points lower than that of 1~4 month; the main business income of 1~4 month increased by 3.9% and the profit growth was only 0.83%, which was a new low in recent years, and the profitability was weakened.
From the operational characteristics, the growth rate of the machinery industry continues to slow down, and the main economic indicators are low growth. The added value of machinery industry increased by 6.8% in 1~2 months, 6.3% in 1~3 months, 5.8% in 1~4 months, 5.5% in 1~5 months, and the growth rate continued to slow down. 1~5 month in the 49 statistics of the national category of statistics, the value added of machinery industry has increased 36 times over the same period last year.
The output of more than half of the products fell from the same period to the same period. Among the 119 major products of key monitoring, there were 71 kinds of product varieties, which accounted for 59.66% of the year on year decline of 1~5, and the product variety continued to increase over the same period, and only 48 kinds of products increased, accounting for 40.34%. In the year-on-year decline, there were 44 kinds of products with two digit decline in the month, and 30 kinds of two digit figures decreased.
The profit is low and the operating efficiency has slowed down. The main business income of the machinery industry in 1~4 month was 6 trillion and 790 billion yuan, up 3.9% from the same period, and the total profit was 437 billion 759 million yuan, up 0.83% from the same period, but still higher than the national industry (the national industrial decline 1.3%) 2.6 percentage points. Among them, one of the main reasons for the decline in profit growth in the machinery industry is that the car industry had a higher base in the previous year, and the profits of the auto industry fell sharply in the first 5 months of this year.
Export growth slowed down month by month, and imports continued to decline. According to the data released by the national customs, the export of mechanical and electrical products in China in 1~5 months was 3 trillion and 120 billion yuan, an increase of 2.7%. Electrical and electronic products exported 1 trillion and 350 billion yuan, an increase of 5.1%; machinery and equipment 913 billion 570 million yuan, down 5.1%. The export of mechanical products is still not expected to be optimistic in May. Automobile exports in key products decreased significantly. Customs statistics showed that vehicle exports were 317 thousand vehicles in 1~5 months, down 11.6% from the same period last year.
At the same time, with the gradual implementation of a series of steady growth policies in the country, some leading indicators of the machinery industry are showing signs of improvement. One is to reduce the cumulative order of key enterprises. The cumulative orders for machinery related key enterprises in the 1~4 month decreased by 3.8%, narrowing by 5.44 percentage points over the first quarter. Two, the financing environment tends to improve, and the growth of financial expenses and interest expenses has come down from the second half of last year. Three, the upward trend of accounts receivable was initially curbed, and the growth rate began to fall slightly. The four is the high growth of product inventory. Five, the price index lasted for 3 months at 98.86%, showing signs of stabilization. Six, the purchase price is still low, which is conducive to reducing the cost and efficiency of the machinery industry. Seven, private enterprises keep up the rising trend.
The structure adjustment of industry now differentiation is effective
For the first half of the month, the downward trend of the industry, Cai Weici frankly, this is the macroeconomic structure adjustment to investment products as the main body of the mechanical industrial structure of the reverse force.
Among them, the largest decline is the investment industry products represented by construction machinery and heavy mining machinery. Statistics show that in 1~4 months, the cumulative growth rate of the product production in the construction machinery industry was negative growth, in which the growth rate of the loader and excavating and shoveling soil transport machinery decreased greatly. In April, the production of main products in the construction machinery industry is still in a downward trend. From the point of view, the output growth of other sub industries, except for the 1.69% growth of the compaction machinery, is negative growth.
In contrast, industries that are closely linked to the consumer market, such as the auto industry, have declined in spite of the previous year, but they remain growing in the first 5 months. According to the statistics released by the Ministry of industry and Commerce in June 23rd, the production and sales of passenger cars were 8 million 740 thousand and 500 and 8 million 583 thousand and 200 respectively in 1~5 months, representing an increase of 7.79% and 6.36% respectively over the same period.
From the point of view of import and export, although the export situation is largely influenced by exchange rate. However, from the current situation, the import of machinery industry has dropped more than exports. Therefore, despite the difficult situation, objectively speaking, the international competitiveness of the machinery industry is improving.
Statistics show that in 1~4 months, the export of machine tool tools was 3 billion 541 million US dollars, an increase of 6.6% over the same period. The export volume of metalworking machine tools was 1 billion 53 million US dollars, up by 10% over the same period last year. The import of machine tool and tools was 4 billion 900 million US dollars, down 3.2% compared with the same period last year. Metal processing machine imports amounted to US $2 billion 800 million, down 7.4% compared to the same period last year.
The general trade export growth of machinery industry is higher than that of the whole export. In general trade exports, the relatively high product growth rate is higher than the general trade average growth rate. Although the machine tool industry is in deficit, import growth is increasing compared with export growth. Although the overall situation is grim, the product structure of machinery industry is upgraded. Do not overestimate the development of the industry. Under the pressure of the situation, the overall quality of the industry will be improved. Therefore, the whole industry should strengthen confidence.